QUICKLOOK: Russia and China's Combined Threat to US National Security
Potential for Physical Attacks through Cyber Warfare, Information Warfare, Hybrid Strategies, and Military Cooperation in a US-China-Russia Proxy War.
BLUF
Russia and China could utilize their combined historical tactics and strategies to execute physical attacks against the US. based on past events, the methods may include cyber-induced physical damage, coordinated disinformation leading to civil unrest, proxy-based hybrid warfare, and joint military operations. The likelihood of such physical attacks is derived from historical precedents, with cyber-induced damage being the most probable (70%), followed by hybrid warfare (50%), and direct military operations (30%).
Abstract
The growing threats to US national security posed by Russia's increasingly sophisticated gray zone and hybrid warfare tactics are analyzed, particularly in the context of an ongoing proxy war involving the United States, China, and Russia. The potential for Russia to execute physical attacks against the United States by leveraging its advanced cyber warfare capabilities, conducting extensive information warfare campaigns, employing hybrid strategies that blend conventional and unconventional methods, and fostering deepening military cooperation with China is investigated. By examining these critical threat vectors and their potential implications, a comprehensive assessment of the challenges faced by the United States in the current geopolitical landscape is provided. The findings underscore the need for the development and implementation of robust countermeasures to safeguard US national security interests and maintain strategic stability in an increasingly complex and interconnected global security environment.
Introduction
The United States faces a significant and evolving threat from the combined efforts of Russia and China, who are employing a range of strategies to undermine US interests and challenge its global dominance. This report examines the key areas in which Russia and China pose a threat to US national security, including cyber warfare, information warfare, hybrid warfare, and military cooperation. By analyzing these threat vectors and their potential implications, this report aims to provide a comprehensive assessment of the challenges faced by the US and the need for robust countermeasures.
Cyber-Induced Physical Damage (Likelihood: 70%)
Historical Precedent: In 2015, Russia allegedly carried out a cyberattack on Ukraine's power grid, causing widespread blackouts and demonstrating the potential for cyber-induced physical damage. The attack, known as the "BlackEnergy" malware campaign, targeted industrial control systems and resulted in the shutdown of multiple power distribution centers, affecting over 200,000 people (WIRED, 2016). This incident highlighted the vulnerability of critical infrastructure to cyber attacks and the ability of state-sponsored actors to cause physical disruption through cyberspace.
Potential Scenario: Russia and China could collaborate to launch a coordinated cyberattack on US critical infrastructure, such as the power grid, transportation networks, or water treatment facilities. By exploiting vulnerabilities in industrial control systems and using advanced malware, they could cause widespread physical damage and disruption. Such an attack could result in prolonged power outages, communication breakdowns, and economic losses, creating chaos and undermining public confidence in the government's ability to protect its citizens.
Historical Events
SolarWinds Cyberattack (2020): A large-scale cyber espionage campaign attributed to Russia, which infiltrated numerous US government agencies and private companies (CSIS).
Microsoft Exchange Server Hack (2021): Attributed to China, this cyberattack compromised tens of thousands of servers worldwide, including many in the US, highlighting the threat of Chinese cyber capabilities (CSO).
NotPetya Cyberattack (2017): Believed to be orchestrated by Russia, this cyberattack targeted Ukraine and caused significant collateral damage globally, including to US businesses (Wired).
Coordinated Disinformation Leading to Civil Unrest (Likelihood: 60%)
Historical Precedent: Russia has a history of using disinformation campaigns to sow discord and fuel civil unrest in foreign countries. During the 2016 US presidential election, Russian state-sponsored actors used social media platforms to spread false information and amplify divisive issues, such as racial tensions and political polarization (US Senate Intelligence Committee, 2019). These efforts aimed to undermine the democratic process and erode trust in US institutions.
Potential Scenario: Russia and China could launch a coordinated disinformation campaign targeting the US population, exploiting existing social, political, and racial fault lines. By using state-controlled media, social media bots, and covert influence operations, they could spread false narratives, conspiracy theories, and inflammatory content designed to incite civil unrest. This could lead to widespread protests, riots, and a breakdown of law and order, straining law enforcement resources and weakening the fabric of American society.
Historical Events
2016 US Presidential Election Interference: Russia conducted a sophisticated disinformation campaign to influence the outcome of the 2016 US Presidential election (Brennan).
COVID-19 Disinformation Campaigns (2020): Both Russia and China spread misinformation about the pandemic, undermining trust in US institutions and exacerbating social tensions (WHO).
Hong Kong Protests (2019): China used disinformation to discredit the pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, portraying them as violent and extremist (VOX).
Brexit Referendum (2016): Russia was accused of using social media to influence the Brexit vote by spreading divisive and misleading information (CSIS).
Proxy-Based Hybrid Warfare (Likelihood: 50%)
Historical Precedent: Russia has employed proxy-based hybrid warfare tactics in conflicts such as the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine. By using a combination of unmarked military personnel ("little green men"), local separatist groups, and information warfare, Russia was able to achieve its strategic objectives while maintaining a degree of plausible deniability (RAND Corporation, 2017). This approach allows Russia to project power and influence without engaging in direct military confrontation.
Potential Scenario: Russia and China could support proxy groups within the US, such as extremist organizations or criminal networks, to carry out acts of sabotage, terrorism, or cyberattacks. By providing funding, training, and equipment to these groups, they could create a persistent threat to US national security while obscuring their direct involvement. Proxy-based hybrid warfare could also involve the use of economic coercion, such as manipulating financial markets or disrupting trade, to weaken the US economy and undermine its global influence.
Historical Events
Crimea Annexation (2014): Russia used unmarked soldiers, known as "little green men," to seize control of Crimea, a classic example of hybrid warfare (BBC) (Atlantic Council).
Syrian Civil War (Ongoing since 2011): Russia's involvement includes military support, cyber operations, and information warfare to bolster the Assad regime and challenge US influence (CRS) (Atlantic Council).
South China Sea Militarization (Ongoing): China employs a mix of military force, economic pressure, and legal maneuvers to assert control over disputed territories in the South China Sea (CFR).
Libyan Civil War (Ongoing since 2014): Russia supports one faction through military contractors and disinformation campaigns, aiming to increase its influence in the region (War on the Rocks).
Joint Military Operations (Likelihood: 30%)
Historical Precedent: In recent years, Russia and China have conducted joint military exercises and strategic deployments in areas of mutual interest. The "Vostok" exercises in 2018, for example, involved over 300,000 Russian troops and 3,200 Chinese personnel, showcasing their growing military cooperation (Deutsche Welle, 2018). These exercises demonstrate a willingness to coordinate military actions and project power in ways that challenge US interests.
Potential Scenario: In the event of a direct military confrontation with the US, Russia and China could engage in joint military operations to overwhelm US forces and disrupt its ability to respond effectively. This could involve coordinated air and naval strikes, cyber attacks on military communications and command systems, and the use of advanced weapons systems, such as hypersonic missiles or anti-satellite capabilities. Joint military operations could also be used to establish control over key strategic regions, such as the Arctic or the South China Sea, limiting US access and influence.
Historical Events
Vostok Military Exercises (2018): Large-scale military drills involving Russian and Chinese forces, demonstrating high levels of operational integration (IISS) (Chatham House).
Joint Sea Naval Exercises (Ongoing since 2012): Regular naval exercises between Russia and China in the South China Sea and other regions, showcasing their naval capabilities and strategic partnership (CSIS).
Strategic Bomber Patrols (2019): Joint Russian and Chinese bomber patrols near US and allied territories, signaling their ability to project power and coordinate military operations (NIKKIE).
Conclusion
The combined threat posed by Russia and China's cyber capabilities, information warfare tactics, hybrid strategies, and military cooperation presents a significant challenge to US national security. By examining historical precedents and potential scenarios, it becomes clear that the US must be prepared to face a wide range of physical threats, from cyber-induced damage to direct military confrontation. The likelihood of these threats varies, with cyber attacks being the most probable and joint military operations being the least likely.
To counter these challenges, the US must invest in robust cybersecurity measures, enhance its ability to detect and counter disinformation campaigns, and develop strategies to address hybrid warfare tactics. Strengthening alliances and partnerships with like-minded nations can also help to collectively deter and respond to aggressive actions by Russia and China.
Ultimately, maintaining a strong defense posture, investing in cutting-edge technologies, and fostering resilience in critical infrastructure and social institutions will be essential for the US to safeguard its interests and uphold global stability in the face of these complex and multifaceted threats.