QUICKLOOK: Space Race - Offence & Defense

Video Summary: SIPRI at the 2021 Stockholm Security Conference 'Battlefields of the Future'

Introduction:

The Stockholm Security Conference held a session titled "Offence-Defence Race in Space: Missile Defence, Anti-Satellite Weapons, and Nuclear Arms Control." The session was moderated by Tutti Arrester from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and aimed to explore the intersection of nuclear and space security issues that are often discussed separately by distinct expert communities. The session aimed to put missile defense, nuclear, and counter-space weapons in the broader context of what is called an "offense-defense arms race."

Event Summary:

The speakers discussed the current strategic armament dynamics that are partly driven by concerns about the survivability of second-strike nuclear forces. Some countries believe that their nuclear deterrence could be weakened by other countries' missile defense systems. This has been one driver of nuclear modernization in China and Russia, where they have been developing advanced missile defense systems to counter the perceived threat. These dynamics are also impacting space security, as missile defense and other modern military systems rely on space-based assets. Counter-space capabilities could be used to undermine missile defenses and may be pursued to preserve nuclear deterrence. Some missile defense systems also have an inherent anti-satellite weapon capability.

The session discussed trilateral dynamics among Russia, the United States, and China, as well as India, which also has both missile defense and counter-space capabilities. The discussion emphasized the importance of understanding how these armament dynamics influence the ongoing arms race. The session included five nuclear and space security experts who shed light on these challenges as well as some potential solutions.

Daniel Porus, the Director of Strategic Partnerships and Communications at the Secure World Foundation, spoke on the concept of arms races, which is key to the session. He emphasized that outer space is not exclusive, separated, or divorced from the geopolitics and strategic stability that we see here on earth. Outer space systems, especially in the last few years, have become a critical component of any modern military. Therefore, the prevention of an arms race in outer space may not be the best way to talk about this issue. Geopolitical relationships and trust are at an all-time low, and we are seeing more and more challenges to space security. Porus identified three indicators of an arms race dynamic that is happening, including rivalry dynamics, corresponding technologies, and indicators of acceleration in the development of certain arms.

Jessica West from Project Ploughshares and Sıtkı Egeli from the Izmir University of Economics was invited as additional expert discussions. They raised questions about the institutional framework for coping with problems related to space security. They discussed the European Code of Conduct for Space Operations (HCOC), which has a provision that prohibits destroying satellites in orbit. They emphasized the need for institutions such as HCOC to address kinetic tests against satellites and find solutions for coping with these problems. The speakers stressed the importance of data sharing and the role of institutions in increasing the number of sources that collect and contribute information, which would help detect threatening behaviors and avoid strategic incidents.

Assessment:

The discussion on the offense-defense race in space emphasized the need for addressing the intersection of nuclear and space security issues. The technology can be used to attack satellites and form part of the offense-defense arms race. The session highlighted the need for institutions to address the challenges and find solutions that ensure space security.

The session emphasized that missile defense and other modern military systems rely on space-based assets, which creates a potential vulnerability that other countries could exploit to undermine the system. The session also highlighted that counter-space capabilities may be pursued to preserve nuclear deterrence, as some missile defense systems also have an inherent anti-satellite weapon capability.

Conclusion:

The discussion on the offense-defense race in space highlights the need for institutions and data sharing to address the challenges and avoid strategic incidents. The session emphasized that space is part of the arms race dynamic, both at the regional and international level and that the technology can be used to attack satellites and form part of the offense-defense arms race. The speakers highlighted the need for institutions to find solutions that ensure space security while addressing the intersection of nuclear and space security issues.